Last week I attended the Major City Chief’s, Intelligence Commanders Conference in Baltimore. NYPD presented a study they conducted on the attack in Mumbai, India by Lashkar-e-Taiba . The detectives who were on the ground with 36 hours of the attack did an outstanding job analyzing the tactical side of the attack. Their presentation brought up a bigger issue for me. What makes a high level crook or terrorist a success or failure?
In Mumbai the terrorists were recruited and trained in Pakistan. Five teams of two terrorists arrived via boats in the harbor and walked unchallenged past scores of people. There was a high level of commitment on the terrorist part. You can be as committed as you want but commitment alone will not make you successful. They were trained in the use of small arms and tactics. However as any rookie cop knows if you assault the front of the building people flee out the back. The back was not covered. They lacked operational experience. They laid IED (improvised explosive devices) along the way to cause confusion and kill as many first responders as possible. Not all of the devices worked. In fact some IED’s were impounded with other luggage in the train station terminal. They discovered later that it was live ordinance. The terrorists walked in pairs, 1 foot apart, firing into crowds to inflict the maximum amount of casualties. Their success was limited. Here is why.
The Indian SWAT team was 19 hours away. It had to be handled by local cops. There are 180,000 cops in Mumbai. They police a city of about 14 million people. Combined they have about 2,100 weapons most left over from the British in WWII. One Indian cop held two terrorists at bay for a considerable time while people fled from the train terminal. He held them off with one shot and a chair he threw. He was killed for his act of heroism, but he saved hundreds. Another Indian cop charged a car stolen by two terrorists. Unarmed, he ran into the fire of two AK 47 assault rifles giving colleagues enough time to pull the two from the car and disarm them. They saved hundreds.
According to the RAND Corporation who recently conducted a study of successful terror operations, “the chances of an attack succeeding increase when the characteristics of the attackers closely match the characteristics of what they are attempting and when there is a mismatch between those characteristics and the security or protective measures the act must overcome.” http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP257/
Concerning terror, I don’t know what the future holds for this great nation. I suspect it is not as bad as most fear, and we are not as safe as some hope. From the research I have read and the cases I have studied, we can defend against most acts of terror on our soil. That doesn’t mean they can’t hit us but I believe the brave men and women who roll out in a black and white everyday can handle Mumbai style attacks.
Spiritually I see some similarities. When what we are trying to accomplish spiritually matches the “gifts” (talents/skills) God has given us, we are much more likely to be successful. Romans 12: 4 ff: http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Romans+12&version=NIV alo, I Timothy 4:11 ff. “Do not neglect your gift…”
The lesson:
· Have a spiritual mission. Know what we are trying to accomplish for God.
· Recognize your skills/gifts/talents. (Think outside the box)
· Gain operational experience in executing your gifts and talents.
· Recognize the obstacles and develop a plan to overcome them.
As the Mumbai terrorist learned that just motivation alone will not make an operation a success. It takes matching your strengths with the task at hand, gaining operational experience and defeating the obstacles that stand in your way.
If you would like a copy of the NYPD PowerPoint send me an email (from your department account) it is classified as LES//FOUO.
A
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